February 2023
Peninsula Clean Energy promised two years ago it would deliver a modeling tool in a White Paper announcing its plan (see story in Archives). True to its word, the Community Choice Aggregator recently published its 24/7 clean energy procurement modeling tool called MATCH (Matching Around The Clock Hourly energy). It is available on peninsulacleanenergy.org.
Peninsula promises to deliver 100% renewable energy to its 310,000 customers 99% of the time using MATCH by overbuilding its portfolio of renewable energy. And they want to do this by 2025.
The report’s authors said the modeling tool, “finds that providing energy on an approximately 99% time-coincident basis” is cost competitive, reduces portfolio risk and reduces emissions. Instead of the current practice of calculating renewable energy in its portfolio to be delivered on a monthly basis, this model will match customer demand with renewable supply in the same hour.
The best resource mix to meet this schedule requires a diverse portfolio of all available renewables, said the report. But the best resource mix for a 24/7 renewable portfolio “depends on hourly matching at higher levels with more storage and geothermal resources.”
The cost to provide renewable energy to customers 99% of the time, the model revealed, would increase costs just 2% relative to Peninsula’s baseline. But there are diminishing returns in trying to match the final 1%, according to the report – Portfolio costs would jump 10% on a time-coincident basis. And the authors report there are wider grid benefits – the system net peak demand would be reduced and system ramp would be improved.
Peninsula’s portfolio as of January 2023 totals 1,268 MW. Solar dominates at 502 MW, with onshore wind contributing 358 MW. Storage totals 116 MW and short-term renewables capacity adds 196 MW. Geothermal trails at 84 MW. The current annual portfolio is not 100% renewable on a 24/7 basis and is supplemented with short-term renewable contracts to reach 100% renewables on an annual basis.
Peninsula Clean Energy is projecting its load in 2025 to be about 3,700 gigawatt hours (GWh) and it has already signed renewable and storage contracts for over 1 gigawatt (GW) of capacity. Based on these contracts Peninsula said it is on track to be 71% renewable on a 24/7 basis by 2025. It is actively working to procure the remaining 29% by that year.
The Peninsula authors said that demand-side resources will help load shaping and shifting as they become more prevalent over the next decade and “will become a critical part of our24/7 renewable portfolio.” Offshore wind and non-lithium storage will also be included in its portfolio in in future years, they wrote.
Going forward Peninsula, as it explores how to operate a 24/7 portfolio, will need to optimize cost, grid impacts, and emissions reductions. It also hopes to inspire other California CCAs, load serving entities and clean energy buyers to achieve the same 100% goal of round-the-clock clean energy.